According to the survey published today by the Center for Citizen Studies of the Francisco Gavidia University (UFG), Nayib Bukele will win the presidency in the first round of voting, and the New Ideas political party will win 57 of the 60 seats at the Legislative Assembly.
The survey reveals that Nayib Bukele obtained 70.9% of the voting intention. Manuel Flores (FMLN) is second with 2.9%, Joel Sanchez (ARENA) has 2.7%, and Luis Parada (NT) is fourth with a 1.1% voting intention.
The last two places go to Marina Murillo (FPS) with 0.6% and Jose Javier Renderos (FS) with 0.6% voting intention support.
Based on these survey results, Nayib Bukele will win a second presidential term during the first round of voting in the upcoming February 4 elections.
To win the presidential election in the first round of voting, the candidate must receive 50% plus one of the valid votes. Bukele’s five presidential contenders add up to 7.9% of the preferences.
In the case of the Legislative Assembly, the survey indicates that New Idaes (Nuevas Ideas) would obtain 57 deputies. ARENA would get two legislators and the PDC one.
Picardo clarified in the Frente a Frente TV interview that the survey was conducted without incorporating votes from individuals residing abroad. Consequently, ARENA might even lose one deputy as a result of the substantial diaspora vote.
In the case of the PDC, the deputy would be for the department of San Miguel; PDC’s Reynaldo Carballo is one of the most popular legislators in the San Miguel department.
The UFG study was carried out from January 3 to 8, 2024, aimed at people over 18 years old. According to the institution, the survey has a 95% confidence level.
The Fransisco Gavidia University survey is similar to the survey released by the Iudop-UCA study released in December 2023. Both surveys show a clear victory by Nayib Bukelea and the New Ideas political party.
Voting for the 2024 Presidential and Legislative elections began on January 6, with Salvadorans living abroad voting remotely.