Street market in San Salvador, El Salvador. Photo by El Salvador’s Central Reserve Bank (BCR) increased its economic growth forecast for the country for 2026, projecting that the gross domestic product (GDP) will grow between 4.5% and 5% this year.
The updated outlook marks a significant increase from the BCR’s March forecast, when the institution expected El Salvador’s economy to grow between 3% and 3.5% during 2026.
According to the BCR, strong activity across different sectors has helped improve the country’s economic outlook. The bank also said government incentives to attract new investment are supporting economic growth.
The BCR also pointed to improved security and El Salvador’s growing popularity as a tourist destination as factors behind the higher growth forecast.
The bank said the Salvadoran economy has remained strong throughout 2026 despite global challenges, including tensions in the Middle East that have pushed up inflation and disrupted supply chains.
These global challenges have created more uncertainty, especially for countries that rely heavily on international trade and imports. For El Salvador, strong local economic activity and investment remain important for keeping the economy growing.
The bank’s latest forecast also considers measures adopted to strengthen food security as the country faces adverse weather conditions that could affect agricultural production and the availability of essential food products.
With the new economic forecast for the year, the BCR expects El Salvador’s economy to grow much faster than previously estimated, supported by continued investment, tourism and strong activity across different sectors.
Other Economic Outlooks for El Salvador
El Salvador’s Central Reserve Bank (BCR) projects the country’s economy will grow between 3% and 3.5% in 2026, placing its forecast broadly in line with estimates from major international organizations.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) forecasts 3.3% economic growth for El Salvador in 2026, while the Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC) projects a stronger 3.9% growth rate.
Meanwhile, the World Bank projects slightly lower growth of 3.2% for 2026. Overall, all four forecasts point to similar expectations, with El Salvador’s economic growth likely remaining above 3%.
