San Salvador, El Salvador. The Economic Commission for Latin America (ECLAC) projects an economic growth of 3.5% for El Salvador in 2024. The projected increase was made public in their August 2024 report.
ECLAC, also known as CEPAL, increased its projection from the 2% indicated in its first report for 2024 released on December 2023.
The new projected economic increase is similar to the 3% to 3.5% economic growth estimated by the Salvadoran Central Reserve Bank (BCR).
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| El Salvador | -7.9 | 11.2 | 2.8 | 3.5 | 3.5 | 3.1 |
The 2024 economic outlook for El Salvador by CEPAL aligns with the Salvadoran Central Reserve Bank’s estimate of 3% to 3.5% growth. It is also higher than the 3.0% forecast by the International Monetary Fund and the 3.2% projected by the World Bank.
According to the Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean, the Salvadoran economy will have the third lowest economic growth in Central America in 2024.
El Salvador is behind Costa Rica, Honduras, and Nicaragua but is ahead of Panama and Guatemala.
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Costa Rica | -4.3 | 7.8 | 4.6 | 5.1 | 4.0 | 3.8 |
| Honduras | -9.0 | 12.5 | 4.1 | 3.6 | 3.8 | 3.6 |
| Nicaragua | -1.8 | 10.4 | 3.8 | 4.6 | 3.7 | 3.2 |
| El Salvador | -7.9 | 11.2 | 2.8 | 3.5 | 3.5 | 3.1 |
| Guatemala | -1.8 | 8.0 | 4.2 | 3.5 | 3.4 | 3.2 |
| Panama | -17.7 | 15.8 | 10.8 | 7.3 | 2.7 | 3.3 |
According to ECLAC, the Central American country that will have the best performance will be Costa Rica with a growth projection of 4%, followed by Honduras with an estimate of 3.8%, Nicaragua with 3.7%, El Salvador with 3.5%, Guatemala with 3.4%, and Panama with 2.7%.
Furthermore, the Economic Commission for Latin America expects that the low economic growth for Latin America and the Caribbean will continue into 2025.
ECLAC noted that Latin America remains “stuck in a low-growth trap,” accompanied by poor investment performance and low labor productivity. From 2015 to 2024, the average growth rate in the region was 0.9%.
