Street market in San Salvador, El Salvador. Photo by SANTA TECLA, El Salvador — El Salvador’s economy is expected to expand between 3.5% and 4% in 2025, according to new regional projections released Tuesday by the Executive Secretariat of the Central American Monetary Council (SECMCA) after a two-day meeting of Central American central bank authorities.
The updated outlook appears in a SECMCA bulletin summarizing deliberations from the Central American Monetary Council session held Nov. 20-21 in Punta Cana. Representatives reviewed recent economic performance and delivered revised medium-term forecasts.
According to the bulletin, El Salvador anticipates economic growth of 3.5% to 4% in both 2025 and 2026. These projections are drawn from macroeconomic programs and monetary policy reports formally approved by participating countries.
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11.9 | 2.9 | 3.5 | 2.6 | 3.5% – 4.0% | 3.5% – 4.0% |
Central bank officials from across the region examined key indicators, including GDP expansion, inflation trends, and monetary responses. They also compared the trajectory of national economies against earlier estimates issued this year.
For El Salvador, Secmca’s projections mark an upward adjustment. In July, the Council’s forecast—based on data from the Central Reserve Bank—placed expected growth between 2.5% and 3%, well below the latest outlook.
The bulletin notes that the revised estimates also incorporate recent regional developments, including trade flows, inflation stabilization efforts, and global economic adjustments influencing Central America’s smaller and open economies.
El Salvador’s Ministry of Economy has publicly signaled confidence in the country’s performance. In September, Economy Minister María Luisa Hayem said in a television interview that officials remained optimistic about achieving higher growth by year’s end.
Hayem said the government expected 2025 GDP to fall between 2.5% and 3%, describing the figures as a return to levels more common in earlier periods of more vigorous economic activity.
The updated 2025 and 2026 projections suggest the government may maintain momentum, assuming international conditions remain stable and domestic sectors continue current output trends.
Other Economic Outlooks for El Salvador
El Salvador’s Central Reserve Bank projects economic growth between 3.5% and 4% for 2025, a significantly higher outlook than several international organizations monitoring the country’s performance.
ECLAC forecasts a more moderate 2.8% expansion for El Salvador in 2025, reflecting cautious expectations amid global uncertainty and uneven regional recovery patterns.
The International Monetary Fund maintains an even lower projection of 2.5% growth, stressing structural challenges and the need for sustained fiscal and productivity improvements.
The World Bank’s latest outlook also estimates 2.5% growth for 2025, aligning with the IMF and highlighting concerns over investment conditions, competitiveness, and external pressures.
