Street market in San Salvador, El Salvador. Photo by The Central Reserve Bank (BCR) projects El Salvador’s economy will grow between 3% and 3.5% in 2026, supported mainly by investment, tourism, and international events taking place across the country.
According to the BCR, these domestic economic drivers are expected to help offset some negative effects from the international environment, particularly rising commodity prices linked to geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.
The projected expansion would represent a slowdown compared with 2025, when El Salvador’s economy grew by 3.9%. That was the country’s strongest annual economic growth rate recorded since 2021.
The Central Reserve Bank said the Salvadoran economy continues along a positive growth path, contributing to the country’s ongoing transformation while also helping improve living conditions for people throughout El Salvador.
For 2026, the BCR expects investment and tourism activity to remain important contributors to economic growth. International events hosted in El Salvador are also expected to generate additional economic activity.
These factors could help reduce the impact of external economic pressures, including higher prices for commodities and energy that could affect businesses, consumers, transportation costs, and other areas of the Salvadoran economy.
Global markets have become more uncertain following the military conflict involving the United States, Israel, and Iran. The situation has shaken energy markets and pushed global oil prices higher.
Oil prices have risen above $100 per barrel as concerns grow about possible disruptions to global energy supplies. Higher prices could particularly affect countries like El Salvador, which relies heavily on imported petroleum products.
Even with these challenges abroad, the BCR expects El Salvador’s economy to keep growing in 2026. However, its projected growth of 3% to 3.5% would be slower than the rate recorded in 2025.
Other Economic Outlooks for El Salvador
El Salvador’s Central Reserve Bank (BCR) projects the country’s economy will grow between 3% and 3.5% in 2026, placing its forecast broadly in line with estimates from major international organizations.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) forecasts 3.3% economic growth for El Salvador in 2026, while the Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC) projects a stronger 3.9% growth rate.
Meanwhile, the World Bank projects slightly lower growth of 3.2% for 2026. Overall, all four forecasts point to similar expectations, with El Salvador’s economic growth likely remaining above 3%.
