All 2024 Election Polls Show Nayib Bukele and the New Ideas Political Party With a Monumental Lead

By Eddie Galdamez  |  Jan 19th, 2024
2024 El Salvador Elections

January 19 marks the last day for publicizing election poll surveys. Four surveys have been released since January 15; all show a decisive win for Nayib Bukele and the New Ideas political party in the upcoming February 4 elections.

The survey results unmistakably indicate Nayib Bukele’s triumph in the presidential elections, securing a second term as president by garnering over 50% of the votes in the first round.

The surveys unequivocally indicate that the New Ideas political party will secure control of the country’s legislature. The only remaining question is whether they will attain all 60 legislative seats.

Francisco Gavidia University (UFG)

Disruptive magazine of the Francisco Gavidia University (UFG) released their Social and Political Humor Survey called “These are the data, don’t get angry” on January 15.

According to the survey, President Bukele obtained 70.9% voting intention. Manuel Flores of the FMLN was second with a 2.9% voting intention. ARENA’s Joel Sanchez was third with 2.7%, and Luis Parada, from Nuestro Tiempo, received a 1.1% vote intention.

The Gavidia survey shows that the New Ideas political party would win 57 of the 60 Legislative Assembly seats, giving them absolute control of the Salvadoran Congress.

UFG Survey

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FundaUngo 2024 Election Survey

In the case of the Dr. Guillermo Manuel Ungo Foundation (Fundaungo) survey, 56% of voters will cast their vote for Nuevas Ideas in the presidential elections, which would give victory to Nayib Bukele in the first round.

Furthermore, 43% of people surveyed expressed their intention to vote for the New Ideas party for the 2024 legislative elections. In second place is ARENA with 3.4%, followed by the FMLN with 3.1%, and GANA with 2.3%. Based on the survey, New Ideas will obtain at least 47 deputies, giving them absolute legislative control.

FundaUngo Survey

Iudop-UCA Survey

The Iudop-UCA Survey released on January 18 showed that 68.7% would vote for the New Ideas political party in the presidential elections, meaning that Bukele would win with a large majority. Furthermore, the institution carried out a voting simulation with a ballot, where 81.9% of those surveyed marked the Nayib Bukele New Ideas flag.

The Iudop-UCA Survey also resulted in New Ideas controlling the legislative assembly. Over 58% responded by giving their vote to the Bukele political party for the legislative elections.

Iudop-UCA Survey

CID Gallup January Survey

The January CID Gallup survey shows Nayib Bukele winning the presidential election with over 75% of the votes. Bukele only needs 50% plus one vote to become president. “We see a significant victory in the first round with quite considerable numbers,” stated CID Gallup Luis Haug.

Haug also noted that the New Ideas party would win at least 52 of the 60 legislative seats, giving them absolute control of the Salvadoran Congress.

CID Gallup Survey

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