Will Mexico’s Crackdown on Crime Be Enough to Satisfy Trump and the U.S. Government?

Mexico has launched an unprecedented crackdown on organized crime as the threat of U.S. tariffs looms. The question remains: Will these efforts satisfy the Trump administration and stabilize bilateral security cooperation?

Unprecedented Extraditions

On February 27, Mexico transferred 29 criminal leaders to the U.S. in a historic move, bypassing traditional extradition proceedings. The decision followed the U.S. designation of several Mexican crime groups as foreign terrorist organizations.

Among those extradited were notorious cartel leaders, including Rafael Caro Quintero of the former Guadalajara Cartel, Miguel and Omar Treviño Morales of the Zetas, and Vicente Carrillo, alias “El Viceroy,” of the Juárez Cartel.

Mexico’s Public Security Minister Omar García Harfuch called the transfer a sign of “coordination and reciprocity” between both nations.

Mexico’s Crackdown on Organized Crime

In response to Trump’s February 1 tariff threat, Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum has taken aggressive measures.

She deployed 10,000 National Guard troops to the U.S.-Mexico border to combat drug trafficking and migrant smuggling and launched an anti-fentanyl campaign targeting schools, winning Trump’s public approval.

Key arrests followed. Just before high-level negotiations in Washington, armed forces captured two top security chiefs linked to Iván Archivaldo Guzmán of the Sinaloa Cartel.

Shortly after, Mexico extradited three additional cartel members, including Jesús Ricardo Patron Sánchez of the H-2 Cartel.

Authorities have also dismantled dozens of clandestine drug labs in Sinaloa and seized over a ton of illicit fentanyl.

Reports suggest the crackdown is impacting criminal networks. According to the New York Times, parts of the Sinaloa Cartel are laying off employees and going into hiding.

Additionally, Sheinbaum has softened her stance on U.S. surveillance, acknowledging the role of American drone intelligence in countering criminal groups.

A Shift from ‘Hugs, Not Bullets’

President Sheinbaum’s aggressive approach marks a stark contrast to former President Andrés Manuel López Obrador’s “abrazos no balazos” (“hugs, not bullets”) strategy, which led to a decline in U.S.-Mexico security cooperation.

Under his administration, the government restricted DEA operations and dismissed Mexico’s role in fentanyl production.

Now, collaboration is improving. The U.S. military’s Northern Command announced increased intelligence sharing, and Mexico’s defense secretary credited this cooperation for recent cartel arrests.

However, violence continues in Sinaloa, and experts warn further progress could be at risk if Trump enforces tariffs or maintains long-term economic threats.

Will President Trump Be Satisfied?

Despite Mexico’s efforts, Trump has reiterated his tariff threats, set to take effect March 4. U.S. officials remain cautious, with Secretary of State Marco Rubio acknowledging Mexico’s security measures while urging further action.

The risk is that escalating U.S. demands could derail cooperation. Vanda Felbab-Brown, a senior investigator at the Brookings Institution, warns that punitive measures could reduce Mexico’s incentive to work with the U.S. if compliance is never deemed sufficient.

The Cost of High-Profile Actions

Sheinbaum’s approach has delivered immediate, high-profile results, but at a cost. Over 800 people have been killed in Sinaloa since the crackdown intensified in September 2024, following the arrest of Ismael Zambada García, alias “El Mayo.”

Also, the anti-fentanyl campaign has consumed at least 5% of Mexico’s education budget.

The back-and-forth between the two countries is likely to persist throughout Trump’s presidency, says Yadira Gálvez, an international relations professor at UNAM. Whether Mexico’s efforts will be sustained or prove effective in the long run remains uncertain.

“Mexico’s response can no longer be merely reactive,” Gálvez notes. “Both countries need to establish sustainable agreements that account for their respective priorities.”