Organized crime — particularly cocaine trafficking — has been the main driver of homicides in Latin America and the Caribbean over the last decade, according to data compiled by InSight Crime.
While the regional homicide rate has remained relatively stable, some countries have seen worrying increases, while others have experienced significant declines.
In the Caribbean, the average homicide rate rose by 18.9%, while in Central America and Mexico it dropped by 58%, and in South America it fell by 22.6%.
The data, collected by InSight Crime over the past decade, illustrates how criminal dynamics have shaped violence patterns in the region as well as the challenges of accurately measuring those changes. Here, InSight Crime highlights some of the most important trends.
Caribbean
The Caribbean was the only subregion where the average homicide rate increased over the last 10 years, rising by 18.9%.*
Although most countries saw a drop in homicide rates during this period, surges in Suriname (+406.7%), Saint Lucia (+151.7%), and Saint Kitts and Nevis (+6.7%) pushed the regional average higher.
SEE ALSO: Caribbean Homicide Rate: Which Country Had the Lowest Murder Rate?
Despite remaining a key transit point for cocaine bound for Europe and the United States, the violence spike in the Caribbean has not been directly driven by trafficking networks.
In Suriname, for example, the increase is linked to the growing use of firearms in petty crimes such as robbery.
In Saint Lucia and Saint Kitts and Nevis, by contrast, the trend is tied to violent turf wars among local gangs and the fragmentation of these groups.
Central America and Mexico
Central America and Mexico saw the sharpest drop in homicide rates of all monitored subregions, with a 58% decline from 38.2 per 100,000 inhabitants in 2015 to 16.3 in 2024.
No country in Latin America and the Caribbean experienced a more drastic drop than El Salvador, where the homicide rate plummeted by 98%.
El Salvador’s drop from 107 per 100,000 in 2015 to just 1.9 in 2024 significantly pulled down the regional average. Without El Salvador’s shift, the drop for Central America and Mexico would have been just 13%.
Honduras, Guatemala, and Belize also saw substantial decreases over the decade, with reductions of 58%, 48%, and 35%, respectively. But this was not the case across the board. In Costa Rica, increased cocaine trafficking through its ports drove a 44% spike in homicides.
In Mexico, the rate rose 13.5% due to disputes over control of drug and migrant smuggling routes. Panama experienced a mild 4% increase tied to local gang rivalries.
SEE ALSO: Latin America Homicide Rate: Which Country Had the Lowest Rate?
Changes in the average rate reflect national dynamics, but do not necessarily mean fewer homicides occurred overall in 2024 than in 2015.
El Salvador, which has a population of around 6 million, could see its homicide rate drop from 33.2 to 16.7 if killings fall from 2,000 to 1,000. But in Mexico, a jump from 16.7 to 33.2 would mean homicides increased from about 22,094 to 43,924 — far more significant in absolute terms.
Still, El Salvador’s drop in violence has been dramatic. It is largely attributed to the dismantling of the MS13 and two rival Barrio 18 factions under President Nayib Bukele. The country had one of the highest homicide rates in the world in 2015 due to gang turf wars.
Bukele’s hardline policies, however, have drawn criticism for suspending certain civil rights and mass arrests of alleged gang members currently being held in a maximum-security mega-prison.
Bukele’s tough-on-crime approach may have shown short-term results, but part of the homicide rate decline is also tied to a change in El Salvador’s recording methodology.
In 2019, the National Police said it would stop including deaths from clashes between security forces and alleged gang members, as well as bodies found in mass graves. That year, the homicide rate dropped from 53 to 38 per 100,000.
Guatemala also saw a steady decline in its homicide rate between 2009 and 2021. The government credits targeted operations in high-crime provinces aimed not only at reducing killings, but also dismantling criminal groups and tackling extortion.
South America
South America’s average homicide rate declined by 22.6% over the last decade. However, some countries saw upward trends despite having declared states of emergency to combat crime, raising fresh doubts about the effectiveness of such measures.
Governments in Ecuador and Chile adopted these measures to contain violence tied to organized crime, but both saw steep increases in their homicide rates. From 2015 to 2024, Ecuador’s rose by 546.7% and Chile’s by 139.1%.
Ecuador’s rise is linked to its emergence as a major cocaine trafficking hub and the explosive proliferation of criminal groups operating in the sector.
By 2023, the city of Durán had become Ecuador’s crime epicenter, with a homicide rate more than three times the national average. The militarization of the government’s war on gangs in early 2024 further fragmented criminal groups, fueling more violence.
In Chile, the expansion of foreign gangs like the Tren de Aragua contributed to the growth of organized crime.
While other offenses have declined over the past decade, those tied to organized crime have risen, straining the country’s prison system. Still, Chile maintains one of the lowest homicide rates in the region.
Despite recent violence in some countries, seven out of the ten analyzed in South America saw declining trends — including Venezuela, with a 70.8% drop, and Argentina, with a 42.4% decrease.
Though data from countries like Venezuela, Bolivia, and Paraguay are unreliable, their downward trends contributed to the overall regional decline.
*The regional average refers to the sum of each country’s homicide rates divided by the number of countries, not the total number of homicides divided by the total population.
