Ecuador President Daniel Noboa.
On April 13, 2025, 37-year-old businessman Daniel Noboa, one of the world’s youngest presidents, was re-elected as president of the Republic of Ecuador. Noboa came to office after winning 55.62 per cent of the vote in a runoff election against Luisa González, the opposition candidate for the progressive left-wing Correismo movement, who received 44.38 per cent.
The candidates first faced each other in the first round of the August 2023 snap elections when Ecuador’s former president, Guillermo Lasso, dissolved the National Assembly.
Far from being the favorite, Noboa, the dark horse candidate, won Ecuador’s runoff presidential elections. In May 2024, he subsequently legalized his political movement, National Democratic Action (ADN). Although ADN professes to follow a center-left political line, most analysts say it is right-leaning.
Noboa thereby claimed victory over Correismo, a political movement that divides Ecuadorian society. On the one hand, it unites the supporters of former Ecuadorian president Rafael Correa and his Citizen Revolution project.
Conversely, it fuels “anti-Correism0,” a movement opposing his progressive legacy and substantial public measures. Despite not regaining the presidency since 2017, Correismo has maintained its political influence within the National Assembly.
Despite criticism of Noboa’s handling of the energy crisis, insecurity, floods, corruption allegations, the forced disappearance of people under his security policy, private projects for natural resource extraction, and increased poverty, he still managed to convince voters that his candidacy would be the best option when facing a return to Correismo.
So, how exactly did Daniel Noboa manage to sway Ecuadorian swing voters?
Capitalizing on the fear of insecurity
President Daniel Noboa capitalized on the public’s fear of the increased crime that occurred during his term in office. There has been an upsurge in prison massacres, politician assassinations, armed robberies, kidnappings, and threats made against public officials, worsening the already violent circumstances in which Ecuadorians live
Noboa made Ecuadorians believe his efforts to restore order were sincere. In an ongoing hardline response to the insecurity, he declared a “State of Emergency” and militarized the streets and prisons.
This policy has resulted in an excessive use of force, with serious human rights violations. As such, US businessman, mercenary, and former Navy SEAL officer Erik Prince, who is also the founder of the controversial paramilitary company formerly known as Blackwater, provided support by “advising the law enforcement and military forces.”
SEE ALSO: Daniel Noboa Is Re-Elected President of Ecuador for the 2025-2029 Term
Religion’s influence on the campaign
As the National Assembly processed the draft Law on Religious Freedom and Equality, presented by Esther Cuesta, an opposition assembly member (Citizen Revolution, the Correismo party), there was a strong church presence in the media.
Church representatives opposed the bill during the election campaign, arguing that the regulatory body sought to “impose ideological control.”
The bill was ultimately intended to regulate freedom of worship to ensure respect for human rights, thus preventing gender discrimination and avoiding religious interference in politics and electoral processes.
According to the 2023 Latinobarómetro opinion survey, 74 percent of Ecuadorians identify as Catholic. The debate on this bill reignited anti-Correismo in the election campaign, leading practicing Ecuadorian Christians to believe that Correismo sought to “violate the rights of Catholics.”
SEE ALSO: How Ecuador’s Gang Dynamics Are Driving Record Homicide Rates
A fear of becoming Venezuela
In the last week of the election campaign, opposition candidate Luisa González proposed spending USD 72 million on “Peace Advisors,” who would work alongside the National Police in the neighborhoods.
This proposal allowed Noboa to reignite the fear of “Ecuador becoming Venezuela,” describing the peace advisors that the opposition candidate proposed as “paramilitaries” and “former gang members.”
In Ecuador, the right used the fear of being the “next Venezuela,” with its many crises, as a political strategy, thus instilling a fear of progressive solutions, polarizing the electorate (Correismo vs anti-Correismo), and discrediting the political adversary (Luisa González). This rhetoric has intensified with every election since Rafael Correa, an ally of other left-wing Venezuelan governments, was in office.
On X, Noboa unveiled a counterproposal to strengthen the “Phoenix Plan.” This proposal involved spending those USD 72 million on increasing police and armed forces quotas for young people who wish to wear the uniform “with pride.” In doing so, Daniel Noboa came across as a leader ready to combat organized crime and prevent Ecuador from becoming Venezuela.
SEE ALSO: Ecuador Crime Profile: A Deep Dive into Criminal Networks, Prisons, and the Justice System
Scholarships and funds
A month before the elections, Noboa launched a scholarship and funds program for young people, senior citizens, and flood victims on the Ecuadorian coast.
He invested almost USD 8 million in the “Because He is Nice” online English proficiency scholarship program for 400,000 recipients. He also allocated USD 100 million to the “Youth in Action Program,” which allows young people to earn up to USD 400 for three months in environmental and energy projects.
These scholarship and funding programs were a compelling incentive for hundreds of thousands of unemployed Ecuadorians.
However, Noboa did not request a leave of absence from his duties before registering his candidacy, violating Ecuador’s Code of Democracy. Therefore, he used public resources to promote his image during the election campaign.
SEE ALSO: Ecuador’s Runoff Presidential Election: Will Electors Favor Military Force or Social Change?
Family-oriented image on social media
Faced with their annoyance at the traditional political system, Noboa maintained a powerful image on social media using young people’s language. His marketing campaign was nuanced with short messages that went viral on social networks like TikTok and Instagram.
The support of his wife, Lavinia Valbonesi, a nutritionist and influencer, and his mother, Annabella Azin, a politician and physician, has strengthened the notion of Noboa as a well-intentioned anti-establishment candidate.
They have contributed not only to his government’s informal and family-oriented image but also to the success of his election campaign.
Valbonesi traveled across Ecuador, delivering humanitarian aid to flood-affected areas and those affected by the recent oil spill in Esmeraldas.
Although candidate Noboa never visited these areas, his wife’s media presence helped promote his campaign as that of a “Government that resolves,” his old slogan.
Therefore, Noboa represents the promise of change at a time of profound crisis. Using a combination of communication strategies and capitalizing on the fear of insecurity, he convinced voters that his reelection would be the best option for the country.
