Final poll before the El Salvador elections shows Nuevas Ideas as the big winner.

By Eddie Galdamez
Saturday, February 13th, 2021 4:17 pm
January Survey
February 2021 IUDOP Survey

Nuevas Ideas, the political party created by president Nayib Bukele is posed to become the big winner in the upcoming legislative elections, according to the latest poll released by the University institute of public opinion IUDOP of the Central American University Jose Simeon Cañas UCA.

The survey was conducted face-to-face from January 15 to February 3 in all 14 departments, rural and urban.

Municipal elections.

When asked if the elections were next Sunday, for which political party would you vote for mayor of your municipality. 43.5% responded for New Ideas, followed by 10.7% for ARENA, and 5.1% FMLN. This result shows that New Ideas, on its first election, could win a high number of municipalities.

The survey showed that New Ideas would be the winner and govern San Salvador, the country’s most prestigious municipality. According to the study, Mario Duran, Nuevas Ideas candidate, receives 60.4%, followed by Ernesto Muyshondt of ARENA and the current mayor with 27.8%.

Legislative Elections.

When it comes to the legislative elections, things do not look promising for traditional political parties, ARENA and FMLN. Currently, ARENA controls the legislative branch with 37 deputies, followed by the FMLN with 23 and GANA with 10.

When asked if the elections were next Sunday, for which political party would you vote for Legislative Assembly deputy. 68.8% responded that they would vote for New Ideas, followed by ARENA with 5.3% and FMLN with 3.7%. This result indicates that Bukele’s political party would hold the most seats at the Legislative branch.

The four most populated departments, San Salvador, La Libertad, Santa Ana, and San Miguel, were survey individually; here are the results.

San Salvador, the department with the most significant number of seats, 24, gave the following results. 72.3% would vote for New Ideas, followed by ARENA with 6.8%, and FMLN with 5.6%. This result would provide Nuevas Ideas 16 seats, 2 to ARENA, 2 to FMLN, and 4 to the other political parties. Currently, ARENA holds 12 seats, followed by FMLN with 6 GANA with 2, PDC, 1, PCN 1, CD 1, and 1 independent.

San Salvador survey
San Salvador survey results

In La Libertad, the current ten seats are held by ARENA with 5, followed by FMLN with 3, GANA 1, and PCN 1. The survey shows that New Ideas would win 7, GANA would keep 1, and ARENA and FMLN would be reduced to 1 seat.
La Libertad Survey results

The current seven Santa Ana seats are held by ARENA 3, FMLN 1, PDC 1, PCN 1, and GANA with 1. The survey results show New Ideas wining 5, GANA 1, and ARENA 1.
Santa Ana

The six seats in San Miguel are currently held by ARENA 2, FMLN 2, GANA 1, and PDC with 1. The survey gives New Ideas 3 seats, followed by one seat each to GANA, PDC, and FMLN.
San Miguel

The Central American University IUDOP results are similar to others that predict New Ideas as the big winner in the upcoming February 28 elections.

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